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Decision Tree: Practical variations

The Quality Toolbook > Decision Tree > Practical variations

When to use it | How to understand it | Example | How to do it | Practical variations

 

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Practical variations

  • When the complete Decision Tree is large, break it into separate sub-trees. This makes it easier to calculate and understand.
     
  • Use a Prioritization Matrix both to select the possible actions to consider and to identify the subsequent events.
     
  • Sometimes multiple events occur between actions. These can be handled by rippling back the calculation, as illustrated.
     
  • Use the Decision Tree with the Activity Network, to plan for alternative project actions.
     
  • A Probability Tree Diagram (Fig. 1) uses a Decision Tree just to break down sequences of possible events. If probabilities of individual events are known, then overall probabilities can be calculated by multiplying at each level, as illustrated below. Note that the final set of probabilities still sums to 1, as it represents all possible outcomes.
     

 

Fig. 1. Probability Tree

 

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